Commanders' actions must match words, whether the offense veers toward run-first or not (2024)

Everyone interested in the Washington Commanders knows Ron Rivera’s stated offensive philosophy.

Seek balance with a run first-mentality and play-action counterpunch at the ready. Some critics, particularly in pass-happy corners, label this approach as conservative even if teams can win this way — when they commit to this path.

The 8-8-1 Commanders didn’t in 2022. Not based on their personnel choices across the offense beyond drafting running back Brian Robinson.

Not with how they filled out their offensive line. Unsurprisingly based on the comings and goings, the unit turned from a strength to a sieve. That’s never ideal, but borderline negligent after acquiring quarterback Carson Wentz and his jittery pocket presence.

Kudos to the front office for nailing the first-round pick with wide receiver Jahan Dotson. They also spent a valued draft asset at a dependent position where two pricey targets existed. Curious depth chart choices at running back and tight end also existed. Thus the run-game talk after a second consecutive playoff-less season led some to mention revisionist history or dish side-eye looks.

Rivera isn’t spinning a no-evidence narrative. With Carolina and dual-threat quarterback Cam Newton, the Panthers ranked fifth in rush attempts per game (28.7) during nine seasons under Rivera. Washington’s best stretch in 2021, a four-game winning streak, was led by a steady run game that epitomized the coach’s complementary football fondness.

“I think that’s what we need to do to win football games,” Rivera said during his season-ending news conference with general manager Martin Mayhew. “We need to control that tempo of the game. I do believe in a two-back system. I’ve had success with that, and I believe we had some pretty good success with it (in Washington).”

🎙️With Ravens insider @jeffzrebiec:

Should the Commanders run toward Greg Roman for its offensive coordinator position?

What's with Lamar Jackson's contract?

Could potential exits for Dan Snyder and Jackson reshape the Commanders-Ravens dynamic?https://t.co/Qf0dvufbDD

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) January 23, 2023

The Commanders drafted the assertive Robinson in the third round. His summer work thrust him into a feature-back role. Starting in Week 6, Robinson’s first action with 10-plus carries, two months after he suffered two gunshot wounds, Washington went 6-1-1 over its next eight games while averaging nearly 36 carries per game.

The offense finished fourth in rush attempts (31.65) for the season. Combined with a defense that topped the league in third-down conversion percentage allowed, the Commanders controlled the game tempo and paced all teams this season in time of possession (33:02).

Like college basketball squads set out to milk the game clock, teams aiming for a slower pace do so because they lack offensive prowess. Washington has a deep array of speedy difference-makers at wide receiver and running back. Without a physically imposing offensive fulcrum like Newton or a forceful line, the rush attack gained ground by volume rather than efficiency. The offense, particularly in the red zone, was a grind.

The Commanders were 24th in scoring (18.9), 25th in red zone efficiency, 27th in rush expected points added (-34.78) and 28th in average per carry (3.98), per TruMedia. Washington was among five teams to average fewer than 4 yards per carry during a season in which the NFL set a record with 4.5 yards per carry, per Pro Football Reference, and the annual run-to-pass ratio ticked up.

Players of peak Newton’s caliber help hide or overcome roster, talent or play-calling deficiencies. Part of Washington’s 2022 plan involved working around quarterbacks Wentz and Taylor Heinicke more than featuring them. The Commanders did so without that singular QB star or needed strengths elsewhere. The line allowed 48 sacks — nine in one game — and those low per-rush averages.

Now a new play-calling voice will take over following the firing of offensive coordinator Scott Turner after three seasons. There are five known candidates, including Washington quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese. Final personnel choices will fall to others.

The Commanders are set to interview Rams assistant HC/TE coach Thomas Brown next week for their OC opening, source confirms.

Get to know the latest candidate by reading my colleague @jourdanrodrigue's insightful profile on Brown.https://t.co/t58XQw88w4

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) January 20, 2023

The persistent late and postseason mention of Washington’s underachieving offense despite a bushel of playmakers missed the point. Good to great lines help the other positions far more than the reverse.

The offensive line didn’t become the team’s weakest unit by accident. Washington replaced 2021 starting guards Brandon Scherff, a five-time Pro Bowl selection, and Ereck Flowers with two cheaper, slower and aged linemen, Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner. The lone lineman drafted, guard Chris Paul, came off the board in the seventh round.

Using four centers in a single season is no way to go through life. Washington did that in back-to-back years. Chase Roullier and Tyler Larsen missed a combined 23 games and ended the season where they finished 2021: on injured reserve. Right tackle Sam Cosmi joined them for a spell with a busted thumb. The 2021 second-round pick, out half of his rookie season with injuries, never regained his steady starting spot.

Left tackle Charles Leno played every snap this season. Though solid, nobody mistook him for a Pro Bowler, which is something the line had every season since 2012 until Trent Williams and Scherff moved on.

The Commanders risked taking on the polarizing Wentz and his $28.3 million cap hit because they wanted a quarterback capable of stretching the field when the run game sucked in the defense. Wentz’s labored performance made taking on the steep acquisition cost, including two third-round picks, a failed experiment — and arguably a misguided attempt based on this apparent run-game predilection.

The refined Dotson joined a room with Terry McLaurin, who later signed a three-year, $71 million extension, and Curtis Samuel. Considering the investment and talent, three-receiver sets would be the base set. Coordinators covet such playmakers for catching passes. That’s the primary job but not the only requirement.

According to Pro Football Focus, McLaurin (6-0, 210 pounds) and Dotson (5-11, 182) ranked among the worst receivers in run blocking this season. McLaurin, a 2022 Pro Bowl selection, missed a fundamental block on a 4th-and-1 run blown up by the Browns’ defense during a Week 16 loss that eliminated Washington from the playoff chase.

Samuel (5-11, 195) agreed to a three-year, $34.5 million free-agent contract in 2021. PFF graded Samuel near the bottom among blocking receivers entering 2021, though he improved by their metrics this season. Backups Dyami Brown, a 2021 third-round selection, and 2023 free agent Cam Sims are the best blocking receivers on the roster.

Even if coaches said screw it, we’re going with 12 personnel, the Commanders lacked the versatile tight ends to scare defensive coordinators.

Starter Logan Thomas, a solid red zone target coming off ACL surgery, ranked last in run blocking among 43 tight ends with at least 400 snaps per PFF. Second-year tight end John Bates is the lone true “blocker” in the bunch. Washington spent a fifth-round pick on Cole Turner, a former wide receiver. Turner and fellow rookie Armani Rogers, who played quarterback in college, held up as blockers in limited scenarios.

Washington finished 28th in receptions by tight ends (60). The lack of two-way threats at receiver and tight end hampered Scott Turner’s ability to confuse defenses by designing different plays from the same formation.

The search for steadier interior running began before drafting Robinson in the third round. This scenario meant 1,000-yard runner and former college receiver Antonio Gibson would become the in-space option. That’s why the initial decision to let free agent running back J.D. McKissic sign with the Bills made sense.

Then the Commanders reversed field and re-signed the passing-down threat. Rivera later said coaches built their plan around Robinson’s physical style. McKissic ensured the team’s third back would be positioned as Gibson’s replacement more than the future early-down option. Jonathan Williams, another bulldozer back, received only one carry during the first three games.

The decision-makers can talk about the run game, but let’s see how they choose to help this offseason while possibly dealing with a tight budget.

Will Rivera seek a meeting with former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman, a noted run-game strategist, even though his offenses aren’t necessarily wide receiver-friendly? He should if he’s all in on the run-first approach.

Greg Roman may be of the greatest run game tacticians I have ever been around at the NFL level. RBs and TEs love his system because they EAT. WRs absolutely hate it. That’s why free agent WRs didn’t want to go to or stay in Baltimore. It was never about Lamar Jackson.

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) January 19, 2023

Rivera and Mayhew acknowledged the need for more offensive linemen, with a nod toward youth. Will they spend two picks in the first three or four rounds accordingly? If they seek a free-agent splash, where does the cap space come from if they hope to retain defensive tackle Daron Payne and other free agents?

That’s the advantage of Sam Howell’s rookie quarterback contract. The 2022 fifth-round pick, the leading QB1 candidate despite one career start, has a base salary of $870,000. Washington will sign a veteran for competition. That budget allocation likely falls below $5 million if the Howell plan is sincere at the game’s most crucial position. Will the front office find enough help to assist Howell and others properly?

Thomas (39 receptions) is a potential salary-cap casualty ($5.175 million in savings). The other three tight ends combined for 21 catches and four years of NFL experience. Without Thomas, would Washington focus on pass-catchers or run blockers?

Does it make sense to release Samuel and generate $5.8 million in cap space ($7.2 million dead cap) that can be used on the offensive line or toward a starting tight end/red zone target rather than force three-wide-receiver sets into a run-game mentality?

Washington may not see these above issues as overly problematic or consider other areas a higher priority. Maybe Rivera and Mayhew will shift plans by the time they meet with the media again. Last year they ended the season saying Cole Holcomb wasn’t the future middle linebacker, only to change course a few weeks later.

Building a winning roster isn’t simple. Injuries are relentless. Proper personnel choices can flame out, and the bounce of that oblong ball might wreck the game plan. Therefore, even in the bottom-line world of sports, sometimes a final record doesn’t tell the whole story. Look at the plan before the practices and games begin. Rivera’s run-game mantra made doing so easier. We’ll see if the actions marry the intent this time.

(Top photo of Brian Robinson: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)

Ben Standig is a senior NFL writer focused on the Washington Commanders for The Athletic. The native Washingtonian also hosts the "Standig Room Only" podcast. Ben has covered D.C. area sports since 2005 and is a three-time winner of The Huddle Report's annual NFL mock draft contest. Follow Ben on Twitter @benstandig